Francis Ngannou is set to return to MMA competition after a significant layoff of over 20 months. He will face Philipe Lins on May 16th at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, as part of the co-main event for MVP MMA’s upcoming Netflix event. Oddsmakers have heavily favored “The Predator,” with his odds shifting from -1408 in late March to -1400 by mid-May, indicating a strong expectation of his victory.
Philipe Lins, a 40-year-old Brazilian fighter, is the clear underdog, with betting lines ranging from +750 to +850. Lins, the winner of the PFL’s 2018 heavyweight tournament, last fought in March 2024, securing a unanimous decision win against Ion Cutelaba. He boasts an 18-5 professional record, with 13 of his wins coming by way of stoppage. However, Lins has shown defensive vulnerabilities, having lost four of his five career defeats by knockout. Notably, he was finished in the first round by Tanner Boser in 2020. His recent career has seen him compete at light heavyweight, where he achieved a 4-0 record before experiencing two heavyweight losses in the UFC.
In terms of fight outcomes, betting markets strongly suggest that Ngannou is likely to win by an early stoppage. Predictions indicate a first-round victory as a probable scenario, with Ngannou’s odds for a finish between rounds one and three set at 1/5. Prop bets for a knockout finish represent approximately an 8% implied probability when considering all possible outcomes. For Lins to achieve an upset within three rounds, his odds are listed at 12/1, and his outright win odds fall between +750 and +850, suggesting roughly a 10.5% chance of victory.
While Lins possesses competent striking and serviceable grappling abilities, the disparity in Ngannou’s pedigree against top-tier opposition is significant. Ngannou has a history of stopping many of the sport’s elite heavyweights, while Lins’ four knockout losses highlight a susceptibility to powerful strikers. Both fighters are returning from layoffs, but Ngannou’s decisive victory over Renan Ferreira carries more weight than Lins’ win against a less prominent opponent.
Ngannou is coming off a knockout win against Renan Ferreira in October 2024 under the PFL banner, marking his return to MMA after brief professional boxing matches against Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. The Cameroonian heavyweight boasts an impressive 72% stoppage ratio throughout his career, with 13 of his 18 wins ending by knockout or TKO. His last five victories have all been by knockout, and eight of his recent ten wins concluded within the first two minutes of the opening round. During his tenure in the UFC, Ngannou achieved a 12-1 record in fights that ended by knockout, famously securing the heavyweight championship by defeating Stipe Miocic in just 52 seconds of the second round.